Data vs. Delusion: How to Win Games Beyond Gut Feeling

Hey Coach,

It’s been said:
“You don’t rise to your goals. You fall to your systems. And systems are built on what you measure.”

And systems (if they’re good) are built on what you measure.

I’ve observed too many coaches (myself included!) make decisions based on what we see. But the best coaches understand that our eyes can lie to us.

The best coaches make decisions based on data.

Naturally, the next question is “What data should you use?” And, again, many coaches use 1 data point… wins.

But a win isn’t data, it’s an outcome; a result.

While winning certainly matters, the more important piece to understand is the process of how we won (or how we lose). 

In SAVI, the V stands for Victory.

But, I think we can all agree that Victory and winning aren’t necessarily the same thing. To me, getting a victory is based on processes and standards. I will exchange a win for a victory all day long.

With victory (process), you can always define it and then measure it.

You can’t always control whether or not you win (the outcome).

While this is all well and good, let’s hammer it home and get specific for a minute.

A mentor of mine, Mike Neighbors, tells his players, “You can come talk to me about your playing anytime. But bring data, because I will have data.”

And what he means is that if a player comes to him and wants to play more than someone else, they need to prove that the team is better with them on the floor.

• Is your rebound rate higher?

• Do our points per possession increase with you on the floor?

• Are you higher on the shooting ladder?

Focusing on the data, the actual inputs of one player over another, is all about trusting the process rather than trying to just win a game.

If this is resonating with you, here are 3 things you can start measuring today to become more process and victory-focused.

1. Stride Stops

On offense, we hunt 9s first.

Everything in our development asks:
How can we create 9s first?

Track every drive.

• SS = Stride Stop

• NO = No Stride Stop

If a player doesn’t stop, passes on the run, or shoots off one foot — it’s a NO.

Game one, the goal is 29 stride stops, and up to 5 NOs.
Game two, push the goal to 30.

The measurement reinforces the action.

2. 9s, 7s & 5s

Assign someone to track shot quality for one quarter.

• 9 = OPEN layup. No contest. High-percentage finish at the rim.

• 7 = Big advantage catch-and-shoot three.

• 5 = So-so shot. Contested or neutral.

Every shot gets a tally.

On offense, we hunt 9s and 7s.
On defense, we force 5s.

Aim for 70% of your shots to be 7s and 9s. 

But victory doesn’t mean you hit the 70%... the victory is defining and measuring it.

3. Left Side of the Street (The Jail Side)

Assign someone to track the percentage of possessions where the ball is forced to and kept on the left side of the floor (called the jail side).

On defense, create two columns:

1. Jail (Left side)

2. NO

When the opponent initiates offense, ask:

• Can we force it left?

• Can we keep it there?

When the opponent initiates offense:

Can we force it left?
Can we keep it there?

Because when we get it to the jail side, we shrink the floor, eliminating space and reducing options. We’re not just influencing direction, we’re controlling territory.

Aim for 70%, but the victory is in deciding (with your team) that this matters.

A win is an outcome. A victory is a defined, measurable process. A SAVI coach exchanges wins for victories.

Measure:

• Stride Stops

• Shot Selection (9s, 7s & 5s)

• Jail Side Percentage

When you measure what matters and align your systems around it, your players develop faster than you thought possible.

Measurement is magic.

We’re here to help,
- SAVI

P.S. If you liked this, you’ll love our SAVI Coaching Podcast, The Hours. We provide coaching insights every week for your drive or workout.

P.P.S.  If you want to join in on these types of conversations, ask questions, or become a SAVI Coach, you can join our SAVI Basketball Community and get access to all our courses, consulting, and cohorts. Click here to try it FREE for 7 days.

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